(1) On May 19, the spot price of SMM Shanghai aluminum ingot was 20490-20530 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20510 yuan / ton, an increase of 110 yuan / ton, a discount of 20 – a premium of 20, and a flat water.
(2) On May 19, 2022, SMM counted that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 965000 tons, down 38000 tons from last Thursday and 22000 tons from the end of April.
Logic: the inventory of aluminum ingots continued to go to the warehouse, the epidemic eased, the transportation improved, the construction in the downstream gradually resumed, and the output of aluminum picked up. In addition, the real estate policy was favorable, the market sentiment improved, and the spot aluminum remained strong. After full correction of aluminum price, the expectation of demand recovery in the downstream peak season is high, and it is expected that aluminum will still rebound in the short term. Supply side: the daily output is expected to rise month on month in May. Consumer side: the downstream demand is expected to be weak. In the medium and long term, the domestic supply has increased significantly, the market demand for real estate is pessimistic, the supply and demand surplus is significant, and the aluminum price may continue to be under pressure.
peration suggestion: wait and see, wait for the opportunity and sell short at high prices.
Risk factors: the output is less than expected, and the demand is higher than expected