Abstract: Under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemics, shrinking demand, and slow global economic recovery, the pressure in my country’s economic stage has increased sharply, and the traditional consumption field has been greatly impacted. In terms of aluminum consumption, real estate, as the largest terminal consumer of aluminum, has shown a downward trend in all data performance.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic epidemics have occurred frequently, and the epidemic prevention and control situation in some areas has been severe, resulting in a significant economic downturn in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China. Under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemics, shrinking demand, and the slow recovery of the global economy, the pressure in my country’s economic stage has increased sharply, and the traditional consumption field has been greatly affected. In terms of aluminum consumption, real estate, as the largest terminal consumer of aluminum, has shown a downward trend in all data performance. With the weakening of the traditional consumption field, the focus of the market has gradually shifted to the new infrastructure field. Among them, 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and rail transit, and new energy vehicle charging piles are important areas of aluminum consumption. Its large-scale investment and construction may lead to the recovery of aluminum consumption, which is beneficial to the current weak downstream consumption. According to estimates, in terms of UHV: According to the historical line data of SMM, the average aluminum consumption per kilometer of UHV AC lines is 63.43 tons, and the average aluminum consumption per kilometer of UHV DC lines is 55.17 tons. It is planned to build UHV AC lines in 2022. 7,568 kilometers will drive about 480,000 tons of aluminum consumption, and 3,040 kilometers of UHV DC lines will drive 167,000 tons of aluminum consumption. If it is conservatively estimated that the project can complete 50% of the planned volume this year, it is expected to drive a total of 324,000 tons of aluminum consumption. . Suburban rail: aluminum is mainly used in the body of the motor car, and each motor car needs about 13 tons of aluminum profiles on average. If 1.5 vehicles/km are equipped with motor vehicles, the planned opening mileage of the high-speed rail this year is about 2,198 kilometers, which will require 3,297 vehicles. If 40% of them are made of aluminum alloys, about 1,318 aluminum alloy vehicles will need to be purchased; if a conservative estimate is made in 2022 During the period, 50% of the lines were put into operation, and there were 660 aluminum alloy trains put into operation. It is necessary to purchase 8,580 tons of aluminum profiles, which can drive 8,580 tons of aluminum consumption increment. 5G base station: Considering that the demand for aluminum used in 5G construction is mainly concentrated in base stations, accounting for about 90%, while the aluminum used in 5G base stations is concentrated in photovoltaic inverters, 5G antennas, 5G base station cooling materials and thermal transmission, etc. According to Aladdin’s research data, it consumes about 40kg/station, that is, it is expected that the new 5G base station will drive 15,200 tons of aluminum consumption in 2022, and 30,800 tons of aluminum consumption by 2025. In terms of charging piles: It is estimated that the number of new charging piles in 2022-2025 will be 2.44 million, 2.65 million, 2.92 million and 4.03 million respectively. Electrode foil, aluminum radiator and other components, the average unit charging pile consumes about 2kg of aluminum, that is, in 2022, the new charging pile is expected to drive 4,880 tons of aluminum consumption, and by 2025, it can drive 8,060 tons of aluminum consumption. Therefore, in 2022, the new infrastructure field is expected to drive about 352,000 tons of aluminum consumption. Considering that the new infrastructure field is the focus of the market during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, it is expected that there will be further improvements in aluminum consumption in the future.
New infrastructure has become the focus of aluminum consumption.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic epidemics have occurred frequently, and the epidemic prevention and control situation in some areas has been severe, resulting in a significant economic downturn in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China. Under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemics, shrinking demand, and slow global economic recovery, my country’s economic pressure has increased sharply, and traditional consumption areas have been hit. In terms of aluminum consumption, the performance of real estate, as the largest terminal consumer of aluminum, shows a downward trend. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April 2022, the sales area of commercial housing was 397.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; among which, the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 25.4%. The sales of commercial housing were 3,778.9 billion yuan, down 29.5%; among which, the sales of residential buildings fell by 32.2%. Judging from the sales area and sales growth rate of commercial housing across the country, the decline has continued to expand since 2022. From January to April, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8,185.88 million square meters, the same as the same period last year. The completed housing area was 200.3 million square meters, down 11.9%. On the whole, in 2022, the scale indicators of the three different stages of housing sales, construction start and completion of national real estate companies will all be at historically low levels, mainly because the epidemic control has greatly affected the progress of the project. As of May, the country has issued more than 270 real estate assistance policies in 2022, but the effect of the new policy is not obvious. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no increase in the real estate sector during the year, which will drag down aluminum consumption. With the weakening of the traditional consumption field, the focus of the market has gradually shifted to the new infrastructure field.
According to the “New Infrastructure Development White Paper” by CCID Think Tank Institute of Electronic Information, it is estimated that by 2025, the direct investment in “new infrastructure” will reach about 10 trillion yuan, driving the accumulation of related investments to nearly 20 trillion yuan. This year, the government has also used new infrastructure as a breakthrough to boost consumption and promote investment to stabilize economic growth. Compared with the “old infrastructure”, the “new infrastructure” is characterized by supporting the construction of related infrastructure for technological innovation and intelligent manufacturing, mainly including 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, and new energy vehicle charging piles. , big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and other seven fields. Among them, 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and rail transit, and new energy vehicle charging piles are important areas of aluminum consumption. Its large-scale investment and construction may lead to the recovery of aluminum consumption, which is beneficial to the current weak downstream consumption. Therefore, the pull of new infrastructure on aluminum consumption will be mainly measured from these four areas.
